Occurs often in tight finishes or missed FTs.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\nBaseball<\/h3>\nMoneyline is by far the best bet for MLB. Runlines (the MLB term for spread betting) are notoriously unreliable and hard to predict. While you can get some advantage in MBL betting by reading wind charts and umpire stats when you bet on overs and unders, it’s a nightmare if you’re deciding who has the advantage.<\/p>\n Furthermore, the runline in baseball is almost always +1.5 which leaves very little leeway to either direction. If there is no clear favorite in the game, we always recommend money\u00f6lines for baseball.<\/p>\n Hockey<\/h3>\nHockey is another sport where moneyline is the king, and it’s for a very obivous reason – the teams’ tendency to play empty netted when they are losing by one or two. <\/p>\n The empty-net strategy makes NHL a nightmare for puckline (NHL variation of spread betting). Even if the puckline is 2.5, a team losing by 2 can pull of their goalie and potentially destroy your +2.5 goals lock.<\/p>\n Soccer<\/h3>\nMoneyline is also the king in soccer due to the low scoring nature of the games. It’s uncommon to see more than -1 spread in soccer games, which doesn’t really make spread betting too valuable.<\/p>\n On the other hand, soccer has a very unique system of spread betting, called Asian Handicap. However, this system is quite complex and we don’t recommend that beginners dabble in Asian spread. <\/p>\n Advanced Strategies<\/h2>\nBoth moneyline and spread bets also lend theirselves well to advanced betting strategies. The following strategies are only for the more experienced bettors, and if you’re a beginner, you should be very careful before trying them out.<\/p>\n Spread Bets and Reverse Line Movement<\/h3>\nReverse Line Movement (RLM) is one of the most effective strategies you can use to identify where professional money is going. It is also one of the most time consuming.<\/p>\n Rverse Line Movement happens when a betting line moves in the opposite direction of public betting percentages. For example, if 70% of bettors are wagering on an NFL favorite at -6.5, but the line moves down to -6 or even -5.5, this signals sharp money (large bets from professional bettors) backing the underdog. <\/p>\n To capitalize on RLM, you should monitor line movements in real time and compare them to public betting trends. If a spread or moneyline moves against public consensus, it suggests that sharps see value on the less popular side. <\/p>\n However, tracking line movements is extremely time consuming and if you get it wrong, you’ll be betting blind. Unless you have a tool or a website that will automatically track the spread for you, this strategy is very hard to implement.<\/p>\n Middle Betting<\/h3>\nMiddle betting also known as “middling,” happens when you placeb betson opposite sides of a game at different point spreads or odds, creating a scenario where both bets can win. <\/p>\n For example, if an NFL team opens as a -3.5 favorite, and the line later shifts to -6.5, you could take the favorite at -3.5 early and then bet the underdog at +6.5 later. If the favorite wins by exactly 4, 5, or 6 points, both bets cash, resulting in a double win.<\/p>\n Even in the worst case scenario, one of these bets will win, and you’ll only lose a little. The downside with middling is it’s rarity. To find good middle betting opportunities, you need to look across multiple sportsbooks constantly (or have a designated tool for it).<\/p>\n Correlated Parlays<\/h3>\nYou can also use spread and moneyline parlays to create correlated outcomes that improve your odds of winning. In sports like basketball and football, where spreads are heavily influenced by game tempo and scoring trends, parlaying a moneyline favorite with a point spread in another game can be a strategic way to increase value.<\/p>\n Sportsbooks even offer same-game parlays, where bettors can combine a team’s moneyline with an adjusted spread to improve odds while keeping their risk controlled. However, while these bets provide higher payouts, they also come with greater variance, as even one losing leg results in a total loss. <\/p>\n This is why you should target key numbers in spreads (like -2.5, +3.5 in NFL) and selectively mix moneyline and spread bets where they see a strong probability of both outcomes hitting.<\/p>\n Caution:<\/strong> Same Game Parlays are the biggest single money maker for sportsbooks in the US. Correlated parlays are a very advanced strategy, and unless you really understand the correlation between events on the field, you should not play them if you want to win in the long run.<\/p>\nHow Often Do Favorites Cover the Spread<\/h2>\nHistorical data for spread bets is hard to evaluate accurately. However, for the 2024 – 2025 NFL season, we can look at a few key stats:<\/p>\n \n- The Average Spread<\/strong>: -1.4<\/li>\n
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